Tag: geology

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Rethinking Earth’s Inner Engine: How Convection Rolls Shape the Planet

Steingrimur Thorbjarnarson

An Overview

What if Earth’s interior behaves like a system of long, swaying rolls — nested currents that move heat and mass in a planetary circulation? This post explains a holistic model where deep, large rolls in the lower mantle couple to finer rolls in the upper mantle, how heat can flow both ways, why basalt may originate beneath subducting plates, and how the planet’s rotation and curvature set the geometry of everything from mid-ocean ridges to the Ring of Fire.

The Earth as a Layered, Moving System

Most readers know the Earth as a set of layers: crust, upper and lower mantle, outer core, inner core. But these layers are not passive shells. They exchange heat, mass, and momentum through organized flow. The mantle convection rolls model treats the interior as a nested system of rolls — long coherent cells in the lower mantle and smaller, faster rolls in the upper mantle that directly interact with the crust.

Large rolls operate at depth, slowly moving material between the core–mantle boundary and the base of the upper mantle. Above them, upper-mantle rolls commonly span roughly 1.5° of latitude (a practical scale for near-surface circulation) and are more responsive to lithospheric structure and localized stress. Together they make up a continuous circulation that links the deepest parts of the planet to its outer skin.

Heat Can Be a Two-Way Street

Classical descriptions emphasize heat escaping from the core toward the surface. The convection rolls model adds an important nuance: thermal radiation from radioactive elements found in upper layers heat the core. Rather than purely one-directional cooling, the interior operates with a dynamic thermal exchange — a feedback loop that helps sustain the system’s long-term behavior.

Where Basalt Really Comes From in Subduction Zones

The model revises the common view of arc magmatism. Instead of seeing basalt solely as a product of slab dehydration and consequent melting of the wedge above the slab, the convection rolls framework places the basalt source below the subducting plate. Deep upwelling associated with large rolls can rise beneath the slab and feed volcanism through both plates, making arc volcanism a surface expression of deeper roll-bound flows.

Rotation, Slab Dip, and Global Asymmetry

Earth’s rotation subtly modifies how descending slabs behave: westward-trending slabs are driven steeper into the mantle, while eastward-flowing slabs tend to be pulled out into shallower attitudes. This rotational influence produces systematic, global patterns in subduction geometry and has not been explicitly accounted for in simpler models of slab descent.

Ridges, Rolls, and a Global Geometric Pattern

Large mid-ocean ridges are not random. They align with the geometry of underlying rolls. Notably, the Reykjanes Ridge and Juan de Fuca Ridge follow the same formula and appear oriented 90° apart; by rotating one segment 90° they can be connected end-to-end to form a continuous upwelling track. The Mid-Indian Ridge also obeys the same relation. These systematic alignments support the idea that ridges are surface manifestations of deep convection boundaries.

The Curvature Problem — Why Rolls Sway and Why the Latitude of 32° Matters

One of the most important insights of the model is geometric: convection rolls “sway” because of Earth’s curvature. Imagine a roll whose overall horizontal flow is aligned perfectly north–south. On the spherical Earth, the east–west diameter of that roll (measured along a latitude circle) will vary with latitude. There exists a latitude where the east–west span of the roll equals the Earth’s radius when the roll is north–south aligned.

When you project latitude and longitude on a map with equal linear spacing (so that degrees of latitude and longitude represent equal lengths), a roll at that special latitude appears circular. Solving the geometric constraint for Earth gives the remarkable result that the latitude of exact north–south alignment is 32° N and 32° S. In other words, the roll geometry locks into a configuration at ±32° that allows a circular cross-section in that equal-length projection.

Why is this important? If the roll shapes are constrained by this curvature condition, then the entire system of rolls — their position and shape globally — can be derived from that constraint plus the roll spacing and boundary conditions. In practice this means there is a mathematical route to map every convection roll on Earth, leaving no gap in the global circulation. The calculation is nontrivial (a mathematical challenge involving spherical geometry and roll dynamics), but it yields a closed, self-consistent architecture: nested large rolls in the lower mantle and smaller 1.5° rolls in the upper mantle that tile the globe coherently. This solution was explored in the WGC 2020 paper and is a central pillar of the mantle convection rolls model.

A Planet-Wide Circulation System

One of the most intriguing implications of the convection rolls model is that it demonstrates how mantle material can circulate globally, not just vertically.

Because the rolls are continuous and curved along Earth’s spherical geometry, material can move both vertically and horizontally through the system. Starting from a point on the equator, an imaginary particle of mantle material could follow the flow paths around the planet and, after a full cycle, return to the same point.

This means that Earth’s interior is not a collection of isolated convection cells but a closed, interconnected circulation network. Over geological time, this circulation distributes heat and matter across the entire globe, linking distant regions in one coherent system.

Such continuous flow also provides a physical basis for the observed thermal balance of the planet. Global circulation allows heat to move in all directions — upward, downward, and sideways — maintaining a long-term equilibrium between core temperature and surface heat loss. In this way, the mantle convection rolls model not only explains motion but also the stability of Earth’s deep interior over billions of years.

The Gutenberg Layer: A Shared Zone Between Two Worlds

At the base of the mantle, around 2,900 km depth, lies the Gutenberg layer — traditionally described as the mantle-core boundary. Within the convection rolls model, this layer gains new significance.

Mathematically, it represents the intersection zone where the outermost part of the outer-core convection rolls meets the lowermost part of the lower-mantle rolls. Rather than being a simple boundary, it is a common zone shared by both systems — a transition and interaction region that couples two distinct convective domains.

This interpretation provides another alignment between mathematics and measurement: the calculated thickness of the intersection region in the model matches the observed thickness of the Gutenberg layer. It strengthens the plausibility of the model by showing how independent approaches — geometric derivation and seismic observation — converge on the same structural result.

The Gutenberg layer thus functions as a transfer zone, channeling heat and momentum from the core’s deep convection into the overlying mantle rolls. It marks the physical connection point in the great internal circulation engine, where deep energy exchange maintains the planet’s long-term thermal rhythm.

Also, how does deep, ductile mantle reach the surface through a brittle crust? Borrowing an idea from engineering — the Munroe effect (shaped-charge focusing) — the model argues that concentrated stress and heat can create focused upwellings or “jets” capable of piercing the crust. These focused pathways explain how mantle material can erupt or cool near the surface while the larger convection rolls remain intact.

The Ring of Fire as a Secondary, Mathematically Constrained Feature

From the roll geometry follow the major division lines between adjacent cells. Where several division branches intersect and curve around basins, an elliptical band of subduction and volcanism is produced — the Ring of Fire. In this model the Ring is not a single primary engine but a secondary feature dictated by the layout of roll boundaries. Key subduction loci (equatorial Indonesia, South America) and important continental tectonic centers (San Andreas, Yellowstone) fall out naturally from the geometry.

Toward a Unified, Testable Framework

Taken together, these ideas form a holistic portrait of Earth as a coherent, circulating system:

  • Nested rolls (deep and shallow) set global and regional patterns.
  • Heat flows both ways and can be focused into pathways that puncture the crust.
  • Basaltic sources beneath subducting plates and rotationally modulated slab dips follow from the same dynamics.
  • The spherical geometry of Earth forces roll shapes to sway and locks the system into a derivable global tessellation — with ± 32° as a key anchor.
  • Circulation through the entire planet maintains long-term thermal balance and explains the core-mantle coupling at the Gutenberg layer.

This framework is intentionally predictive: ridge alignments, slab dips, arc positions, and anomalous volcanic centers are all observable consequences. The mathematical derivation and case studies are discussed in more detail in the WGC 2020 paper and the Stanford 2023 presentation.

References & Further Reading

  • Comparing Large-Scale Geothermally Related Topographic and Bathymetric Features and the Mantle Convection Rolls Model, Stanford 2023.
  • A Comprehensive Model of Mantle Convection Rolls, Proceedings World Geothermal Congress, 2020.

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The Logic of 30° Intervals Along the Equator

Steingrimur Thorbjarnarson

When we look at Earth’s surface, it’s easy to get lost in the details of coastlines, mountain ranges, rivers, and ridges. But if we step back and think about the planet’s deeper structure, something fascinating emerges: a repeating pattern along the Equator that follows 30° intervals.Why does this matter? Because these intervals may reflect the way Earth’s mantle moves beneath our feet.30°: A Hidden Rhythm of the Earth

Here’s the basic observation: the distance from a continental coastline to the nearest mid-ocean ridge along the Equator is 30° in a repetitive way. That number also shows up inside Earth, as the depth from the upper mantle down to the boundary above the outer core (the Gutenberg discontinuity) corresponds to the same span if you measure it along the Equator.

In other words, Earth seems to “prefer” structures that fit into neat 30° chunks, both at the surface and deep inside.

This suggests that mantle convection rolls, the giant slow-moving currents that circulate heat within the Earth, might be about as tall as they are wide, filling out the relevant space like building blocks.

Do These Rolls Really Exist?

We can’t measure mantle convection rolls directly, only thickness of Earth’s layers. But if the theory holds, then we should see their influence on the surface. One way to test this idea is to trace the Equator step by step and look at how major features line up.

Step by Step Along the Equator

If we follow the Equator around the globe, we can divide it into roughly 30° segments. Each of these intervals is marked by a major geologic boundary — a coastline, ridge, or rift. Here’s how it looks:

  • East Pacific Rise → West Coast of South America
    The East Pacific Rise is one of the fastest-spreading mid-ocean ridges on Earth. About 30° west lies the subduction zone of the Andes, where the ocean floor sinks beneath the continent, fueling earthquakes and volcanoes.
  • West Coast of South America → East Coast of South America
    Crossing the continent, we move from the dramatic tectonic activity of the Pacific margin to the quieter Atlantic side. This stretch includes the Amazon Basin, with its massive river system, which itself aligns closely with the 30° spacing.
  • East Coast of South America → Mid-Atlantic Ridge
    The Atlantic Ocean opens here, with the Mid-Atlantic Ridge running down its center. This ridge is part of the global rift system, where magma rises to form new ocean floor.
  • Mid-Atlantic Ridge → East Coast of Africa
    Another 30° step brings us to the African coastline, which mirrors South America’s. This pairing reflects the ancient breakup of Gondwana, a perfect example of how mantle flow leaves a lasting imprint on surface geography.
  • East Coast of Africa → Great Rift Valley
    The East African margin lies above mantle upwellings. Just 30° inland, the Great Rift Valley splits the continent, an active rift zone where the crust is being pulled apart and new oceans may someday form.
  • Great Rift Valley → Mid-Indian Ridge
    Continuing eastward, the Equator crosses the Indian Ocean, where the Mid-Indian Ridge rises. Like other spreading centers, it’s a direct expression of convection currents pushing Earth’s plates apart.
  • Mid-Indian Ridge → East Coast of Indonesia
    Here the Equator traverses a broad ocean basin before reaching Indonesia. This region sits at the collision of several tectonic plates, where subduction and volcanism dominate.
  • East Coast of Indonesia → West Coast of Indonesia
    Within just 30°, we pass across one of the most tectonically active areas in the world. Subduction zones border both sides of Indonesia, creating a chain of volcanoes and frequent earthquakes.

The Pacific Exception

One striking difference emerges in the Pacific Ocean. Unlike the Atlantic or Indian Oceans, the Pacific has no continental landmass near its center. Hawaii, located north of the Equator, lies above a lower mantle division line according to the comprehensive convection rolls model, but not on the Equator itself.

This means the Pacific spans a much wider interval: about 150° from Indonesia to South America, or 120° from Indonesia to the East Pacific Rise. At the Equator, the East Coast of Indonesia and the West Coast of South America mark the outer edges of the Ring of Fire. From those two points, subduction zones stretch in a regular arc all around the Pacific Basin.

In this sense, the Pacific doesn’t break the pattern, it expands it. The Equator provides the framework for tracing the boundaries, while the Pacific demonstrates how convection rolls and plate boundaries can extend into even larger structures.

Coincidence… or Deep Structure?

Is this just chance? Statistically, it seems unlikely that so many major boundaries would fall into such regular intervals. If we consider tectonic drift, the slow movement of continents and oceans over millions of years, the fact that we see such symmetry today is even more striking.

But once we think about the mantle’s convection rolls, the puzzle pieces start to fit. The surface divisions may simply be echoes of these massive, deep-seated currents.

Beauty in Regularity

Some of Earth’s most famous features fall right on these boundaries:

  • The Great Rift Valley in East Africa.
  • The Amazon River estuary in South America.
  • Subduction zones along the Andes Mountains.
  • The converging coasts and volcanic arcs of Indonesia.
  • And the sweeping Ring of Fire, stretching from South America to Indonesia.

Even the north-south symmetry of the Atlantic Ocean fits into the pattern. When you look at a world map with this in mind, it’s hard not to see a hidden order, a kind of natural geometry that shapes both land and sea.

Why It Matters

This isn’t just an exercise in pattern-spotting. If convection rolls in the mantle really do leave their fingerprint on the surface at 30° intervals, then studying these divisions could help us understand Earth’s inner workings more deeply.

It’s a reminder that the beauty of our planet isn’t only in mountains and oceans, but also in the invisible rhythms of the deep Earth that quietly shape them.

The Equator and the pattern of 30° intervals leading to the surface.
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How Heat is Conveyed within the Earth

Steingrimur Thorbjarnarson

The transfer of heat from Earth’s core to its surface is one of the fundamental processes driving our planet’s dynamics. The temperature difference is immense: the inner core is estimated to be hotter than the surface of the Sun, while the overlying mantle is several thousand degrees cooler. This gradient is sustained because radioactive heat sources are distributed unevenly within Earth’s interior.

Radioactive elements such as uranium, thorium, and potassium are concentrated mainly in the crust and upper mantle. They are chemically incompatible with the iron–nickel alloy that makes up the core and therefore absent from the deep metallic layers. As a result, the core itself does not produce radiogenic heat.

Surrounding the inner core, the outer core is a liquid metal where there is quite obviously space for six different convection cells, shown in countless drawings found in geophysical literature. At the boundary between the outer core and the mantle, the Gutenberg discontinuity, heat is transferred into the lowermost mantle.

The mantle is said to be plastic, because it is balancing between solid and liquid state. On geological timescales it behaves as a very slow, viscous fluid. This allows it to circulate, with hot material rising and cooler material sinking in enormous mantle convection rolls. Such convection provides an efficient mechanism for transferring heat from the deep Earth toward the lithosphere. When this heat reaches the lithosphere, the situation changes. The lithosphere, comprising the tectonic plates, is rigid and brittle. Here, heat can no longer be transferred effectively by convection; instead, it passes upward by thermal conduction, producing the steep geothermal gradient observed in the upper crust.

At certain boundaries, such as mid-ocean ridges, rift zones, and volcanic hotspots, mantle convection currents concentrate and channel heat more directly to the surface. Where two convection rolls meet, the focused upwelling of heat and pressure can act in a way somewhat comparable to the Munroe effect known from the physics of shaped charges: energy becomes concentrated along a narrow path, enabling molten rock to rise through the crust. This focused delivery of heat and magma helps explain the occurrence of volcanism at structurally weak points in the lithosphere.

Heat Radiation and the Core’s High Temperature

An additional factor that deserves close attention is the role of thermal radiation from radioactive elements in the upper mantle and crust. While radiogenic isotopes are unevenly distributed, their heat production is substantial, and the resulting radiation does not remain confined to local surroundings. Laboratory studies have shown that the thermal conductivity of mantle materials increases strongly at high temperatures. This implies that radiative transfer of heat through the mantle becomes increasingly significant under deep-Earth conditions.

From this standpoint, it is logical to consider that heat radiation generated in the upper mantle and crust can reach all the way down to the inner core. This view challenges the traditional assumption that the mantle acts only as an insulating blanket that slows cooling of the core. Instead, the mantle may also act as a medium that allows long-range transfer of radiative energy into the deepest interior.

This has important consequences for how we interpret the origin of Earth’s core heat. Physicists such as Max Planck calculated that if Earth’s interior relied solely on primordial heat left over from accretion, that heat should have dissipated very quickly relative to Earth’s 4.5-billion-year age. By this reasoning, the amount of primordial heat still retained in the core today must be negligible. Similarly, if downward heat radiation from the mantle is sufficient to maintain the core at high temperatures, then the release of latent heat from inner core crystallization also becomes only a minor contribution.

The conventional models that invoke secular cooling and crystallization as the dominant heat sources are understandable, given the historical focus on conduction and convection. However, they do not fully account for the efficiency of radiative transfer in high-temperature mantle materials. My analysis therefore leads to the conclusion that the extraordinarily high temperature of the core can be explained almost entirely by heat radiation from radioactive elements in the upper layers of the Earth. Rather than being a passive reservoir of slowly fading primordial heat, the core is actively sustained by radiative energy generated above it.

Convection and Radiative Balance

This interpretation also reframes how we understand convection within Earth’s main layers. The mantle, outer core, and even the inner core’s boundary layers all fit the geometric conditions for Rayleigh–Bénard type convection to occur: a fluid or semi-fluid medium heated from below (or internally) and cooled from above. For such convection to remain stable over geological timescales, the rate of convective circulation must stay perfectly balanced with the intensity of heat radiation reaching the inner core.

In other words, the deep Earth operates as a finely tuned thermal engine. Radiative input from above sustains the temperature of the core, while convection in the mantle and core ensures the continuous upward transport of heat. This delicate balance drives plate tectonics, fuels volcanic activity, and maintains the dynamic processes that have shaped Earth for billions of years.

The Convection Rolls System.

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Convection Rolls and the Global Logic of Plate Tectonics

Steingrimur Thorbjarnarson

The surface of our planet bears the unmistakable marks of forces that operate deep within its interior. Mountains, rift valleys, volcanic arcs, and ocean basins are not random accidents of nature but the result of systematic and persistent geological processes. Among these, the concept of mantle convection, where heat from Earth’s interior drives circulating rolls of plastic mantle, offers a coherent way to understand the global distribution of geological features. When we examine the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ring of Fire, and particularly Iceland’s unique geology, we can see a consistent pattern that points to convection rolls as a guiding force in shaping the planet’s surface.

The Mid-Atlantic Ridge: A Symmetrical Rift

The Mid-Atlantic Ridge is one of the most striking linear features on Earth. Stretching north to south, it runs down the center of the Atlantic Ocean like a seam on a baseball. Along this ridge, tectonic plates are moving apart, and new crust is being created as magma rises to fill the gap. What is remarkable is the symmetry of this system. The forces that shape the eastern Atlantic margins, along Europe and Africa, are mirrored in the geological structures along the western margins, facing the Americas.

This symmetry suggests that the same deep mantle processes operate beneath both sides of the Atlantic. The ridge itself acts as the surface expression of an underlying upwelling zone, hot material rising in a systematic manner from below. The spreading, volcanism, and earthquakes observed along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge are thus not isolated features but the predictable result of convection-driven divergence.

To fully comprehend the effect of convection rolls, it is important to recognize that Earth’s interior is not a single uniform system but a set of layers, each with its own convection dynamics. Convection rolls in different layers may be oriented in different directions, creating complex interactions between them. On top of this, the large-scale convection rolls of the lower mantle are often overlain by smaller rolls in the upper mantle and asthenosphere. These smaller rolls add detail and local variation to the broader global pattern. As a result, surface expressions such as mid-ocean ridges appear at once holistic, reflecting the influence of large-scale mantle circulation, and discontinuous, because smaller-scale convection rolls introduce irregularities and segmentation. This layered and multi-scale system helps explain why Earth’s geological features can seem both systematic and fragmented at the same time.

The Pacific Ring of Fire: A Continuous Arc

Moving to the Pacific, we encounter an entirely different yet equally systematic phenomenon: the Ring of Fire. This chain of volcanoes and seismic zones encircles the Pacific Ocean, from the Andes in South America, up through North America’s Cascades, across the Aleutians, and down through Japan, the Philippines, and New Zealand.

At first glance, the Ring of Fire may seem irregular, since the volcanoes and trenches occur in different geological settings. Yet when viewed through the lens of mantle convection, it becomes clear that similar forces are at work around the entire Pacific rim. Subduction zones, where one plate dives beneath another, are surface expressions of downwelling limbs of convection rolls. The arcs of volcanoes, aligned in systematic chains, form where mantle material melts and rises due to the descending slabs. Just as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge reflects upwelling, the Ring of Fire reflects downwelling and lateral flow. Both belong to the same fundamental system.

Convection Rolls as a Global Framework

The systematic appearance of these geological features, ridge in the Atlantic, arcs around the Pacific, points strongly toward convection rolls as the underlying framework. Instead of imagining Earth’s mantle as chaotic or localized in its motions, we can view it as a series of organized rolls, like giant conveyor belts. These rolls transport heat from the deep interior to the surface, and in the process, they drag along the tectonic plates. It is important to point out that the rolls working against the drift of the plates above tend to be neutral due to slip effect, and the rolls acting in the same direction accelerate or maintain the drift due to no-slip effect. This horizontal drift can only be maintained with ridges and subduction zones, which in turn fit into the pattern of the convection rolls system.

By adopting this perspective, the global distribution of active regions becomes much more comprehensible. Features that might otherwise appear disconnected, the Andes, the East Pacific Rise, the Aleutians, or the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, can be seen as parts of the same coherent system.

Iceland: A Natural Laboratory

Among all the regions where convection manifests at the surface, Iceland stands out as one of the most revealing. Straddling the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, Iceland is literally being pulled apart by the diverging North American and Eurasian plates. The island is intensely volcanic, with eruptions occurring regularly, and geothermal energy bubbling up in hot springs and geysers.

What makes Iceland particularly interesting is the systematic pattern observable in its geology. Studies reveal repeated occurrences of features at roughly 1.5° intervals from east to west. These intervals are not random. They suggest that convection rolls beneath Iceland influence where magma rises and where fissures open. Instead of a single point source or isolated plume, Iceland’s structure implies a rolling system of upwellings and downwellings, each spaced in a consistent rhythm.

This pattern is like a fingerprint of convection rolls imprinted directly onto the surface. It provides one of the clearest local examples of how mantle dynamics can create systematic geological structures.

Extrapolation to Global Geology

If such a system can be identified beneath Iceland, it is logical to extend the same reasoning to other parts of the world. Iceland is not unique in experiencing volcanism or tectonic spreading. It is simply an especially visible case because the ridge rises above sea level there. The same processes occur all along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, hidden under the ocean. Likewise, the arcs and trenches of the Pacific reveal similar spacing and repetition when studied carefully.

By extrapolating the system of convection rolls outward, one can explain the arrangement of many other active geological areas worldwide. The Mediterranean volcanism, the East African Rift, the Philippine arcs, and even intraplate hotspots may be understood within the same framework. They all represent surface manifestations of a deeper and more systematic circulation of Earth’s mantle.

A Unified Perspective

The strength of this convection-roll model lies in its ability to unify diverse geological observations into a coherent picture. Rather than treating each volcanic chain, rift, or trench as a separate phenomenon requiring a unique explanation, we can see them as interconnected parts of a global circulation system.

In the Atlantic, this system explains the symmetry of spreading ridges. In the Pacific, it accounts for the continuous arc of subduction and volcanism. In Iceland, it reveals itself in the regular spacing of geological features. On a global scale, it provides a logical framework for understanding why geologically active regions appear where they do.

Conclusion

The Earth’s surface is a complex mosaic of geological features, but beneath that complexity lies order. The Mid-Atlantic Ridge’s north–south orientation, the continuous Ring of Fire around the Pacific, and the repeated spacing of structures in Iceland all point toward the same conclusion: convection rolls in the mantle are shaping our planet in a systematic way. By recognizing this pattern and extrapolating it globally, we gain not only a deeper understanding of Earth’s past but also a predictive framework for studying its geological future.

The study of Earth’s interior is far from complete, but each new observation strengthens the view that mantle convection is not a chaotic process but an organized system of rolls. These rolls, moving slowly over millions of years, have carved the face of the planet, lifted mountains, opened oceans, and lit volcanic arcs. From the symmetry of the Atlantic to the fiery arcs of the Pacific, and from the rhythmic geology of Iceland to the restless rifts of Africa, the logic of convection rolls offers a powerful lens through which to read the Earth’s grand design.

Geysir: The most famous geological feature of Iceland.
The wide red line represents large scale lower mantle divisions. Geysir is found just at its side,
but exactly on a division line between smaller convection rolls.

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The circular tectonic drift vectors of Anatolia

Steingrimur Thorbjarnarson

The tectonic drift of the Anatolian Plate is notably independent from its surroundings. While the Arabian Plate moves northward, similar to the African Plate, the Anatolian Plate exhibits a counterclockwise rotation. This motion can be examined through the lens of the convection rolls model to see whether it offers any additional insights. The outcome is striking and reveals two key points:

  1. The combined structure of convection rolls and plate boundaries appears to create the conditions for a central pivot point around which the Anatolian Plate rotates.
  2. If a fixed point within the convection model exerts a dominant influence on tectonic drift, then the convection rolls also offer a framework for understanding the subduction of the African Plate beneath the Eurasian Plate.

The map showing drift vectors can be found at:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19475705.2024.2446588#abstract

The most significant observation is that this central pivot lies near the 32nd parallel, precisely where two mantle upwelling lines intersect at approximately 32.1°E. Along this latitude, the convection roll system is aligned exactly north–south, making it a key structural feature, comparable in importance to the equator and the 64°N/S parallels. Interestingly, this location corresponds roughly to the eastern edge of the Nile River delta. It has previously been noted that the deltas of the world’s largest rivers—especially the Amazon at the equator—are situated at critical junctions within the convection rolls framework. https://magicmagma.com/2022/10/04/what-do-the-three-famous-rivers-amazon-nile-and-mississippi-have-in-common/

Given this fixed relationship between surface tectonics and mantle convection geometry, the concept of rollback requires reconsideration. In this case, the European continent appears to be drifting away from the latitude at which the African Plate subducts beneath it. Whether we interpret this as northward retreat of the African slab or northeastward drift of Europe, the geological consequences are functionally the same.

The side-view depiction of African Plate subduction shows how numerous geological features have developed over the last 35 million years, since subduction began. These reflect the continuing northeastward movement of the Eurasian Plate, while the northern edge of the African Plate descends beneath it.

This is from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqK-CbuM3Eo

Just to clarify a bit what drives the tectonic drift anomaly of Anatolia, a particular bit of convection roll can be pointed out:

It can also be pointed out that most geothermal activity is found in this part of Turkey. Take a look at this map:

It is from https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Geothermal-map-of-Turkey-MTA-2021b_fig1_365230456

The red area in Western Turkey coincides with the convection roll taking part in driving the rotation of the local tectonic plate. This can explain the geothermal activity anomaly.

Note that the appearence of the aggregate of vectors of GPS drift measurements of the Anatolian Peninsula is not only circular, but also basicly from east to west. The mathematical precision of the drift can only be possible because of a very regular system of convection rolls underneath. The rolls following the drift are coupled to the layers above, the ones opposing are decoupled. Thereby the engine driving this interesting rotational drift of the plate can be explained thoroughly.

Just to clarify further how the convection rolls move the tectonic plate, this drawing is added:

The red areas provide force for the circle to move anti-clockwise in an almost circular way. As previously mentioned, the pivotal point is also a key point within the convection rolls system as a whole, due to the exact N-S alignment of convection rolls at the 32nd latitude.